It appears the curse of the midterm elections is going to hit the ruling party head-on

The midterms are still seven months away, and the Republicans must contend with an American voter whose mood has noticeably changed.

After regaining the White House in 2024, President Donald Trump – seeking revenge after being “cheated” of the presidency in the 2020 election – confidently declared victory. His approval numbers never looked better and the Republicans controlled Congress. Meanwhile, the Democrats looked dazed and confused as they struggled to make sense of their loss. Yes, Trump appeared invincible. But that was yesterday.

Trump is certainly aware of the curse that has haunted incumbent leaders for decades which says that they have a high chance of losing the midterms (for the uninitiated, midterm elections are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president’s four-year term of office). This curse has held true for even popular two-term leaders like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. To put it bluntly, the numbers do not look very promising for the Republicans at this stage of the game.

According to the latest data, Donald Trump’s approval rating is 33%, which is the lowest in his second term. This drop is due to several factors, including fears over the Iran war, immigration, inflation and his handling of other various issues, with 62% of Americans reporting disapproval of his job performance. This lack of enthusiasm for the US leader will have a knock-on effect in the midterm elections.

More vexing for Republicans, the latest polls indicate they could lose not just the House but the Senate as well – a scenario that seemed virtually impossible just months ago. Presently, almost 40 House seats are considered to be ‘up in the air.’ Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to regain control of the House. As for the Senate, states once considered solidly Republican – like Iowa, Ohio and Texas – are now too close to call. Historically, the party controlling the White House loses an average of 22 House seats in the midterms.

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Immigration, the singular issue that helped boost Trump into the Oval Office, is beginning to falter. After controlling the political agenda for years, it has dropped behind civil rights and civil liberties concerns in late January, according to YouGov and The Economist tracking – to its lowest standing since Trump entered office. The change occurred in sync with the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, two Minneapolis residents fatally shot by ICE agents during operations.

Up next was the Iran war, a foreign policy flop that flies in the face of the ‘America First’ credo that has animated Trump’s rise to power. Not only does the war contradict Republican ideology, it has alienated many NATO allies in the process. Back home, while many Americans would be hard-pressed to locate Iran on a map, they need no special guidance to tell them where gasoline prices stand – at about $3.45 per gallon on average.

As far as the distracted and overworked American is concerned, Washington can continue to wage wars wherever and whenever it wants, just so it does not put a dent in their wallet. Trump clearly understands this and that is why he is desperate to get out of Iran as soon as possible. Meanwhile, while Trump has focused his attention overseas in Iran and Ukraine, MAGA ideologues are frustrated as the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.7% over the past 12 months.

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And then there are the Epstein files, which Trump while on the campaign trail promised to release to public scrutiny. Once in office, however, the tune changed as the US leader dismissed the documents as yet another Democrat conspiracy. It required a bipartisan congressional shove in the form of a discharge petition to force his hand. In November 2025, Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The releases finally began in December, albeit heavily redacted. When investigators examined the files, they discovered the Department of Justice had selectively withdrawn materials related to charges against the president. That secrecy over the most explosive scandal to rock Washington in decades did little to help Trump and the Republican Party in the polls.

It’s important to note that the political reversal being experienced by the Republicans has little to do with Democratic strength. It’s easy to forget that Democrats remain deeply unpopular with the American voter – their net favorability stands at -20 points, according to surveys.

The simple explanation to understand the crisis at this juncture is that voters are penalizing the Republicans. They are furious about rising prices, the faltering on the Epstein files, the harsh anti-migrant tactics and the foreign misadventures.