MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Voters in the small Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti cast ballots for president on Friday, with longtime leader Ismaïl Omar Guelleh expected to secure a sixth term in office after lawmakers scrapped presidential age limits last year.

Guelleh, 78, has ruled the country of about 1 million for more than two decades. The results of the 2021 election showed him winning nearly 99% of the vote.

He faces a single challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, a former ruling party member, in a race analysts say offers little genuine competition. Opposition groups frequently boycott elections, citing restrictions on political freedoms. Critics describe the system as tightly controlled, while authorities point to stability in a volatile region.

Guelleh succeeded his uncle, former President Hassan Gouled Aptidon, in 1999, extending a family-led system that has shaped the country’s politics for decades.

Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases, including those of the U.S., China, France and Japan, underscoring its strategic importance along a key global shipping route linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Revenues from these arrangements, along with port services for neighboring Ethiopia, underpin the economy.

But that model leaves Djibouti exposed to external shocks. It depends heavily on Ethiopia’s use of its ports, while global disruptions — including Red Sea shipping insecurity — pose risks to revenue. Rising geopolitical competition and debt exposure, particularly to China, also add to longer-term uncertainty.

Regional observers from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development monitored the vote.

“The scrapping of term limits in Djibouti is less about electoral competition and more about preserving regime continuity in a highly strategic state,” Mohamed Husein Gaas of the Raad Peace Research Institute told The Associated Press.

“While it raises concerns about democratic backsliding, external actors are likely to prioritize stability given Djibouti’s critical role in Red Sea security and global trade routes, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East,” he said.

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